Bitcoin climbed back above $85,000 this week for the first time since January, extending a rally that has pushed it up roughly 30% from its August lows. The move also put Bitcoin back above its 50-week moving average, a level closely watched by longer-term traders.

Kalshi traders have started repricing the rest of the year with it. Odds of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before year-end rose to roughly 38% after falling as low as 16% last week.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows are positive again for 2026 after investors poured roughly $4.6 billion into the funds since August 19, erasing the year’s earlier net outflows.

The reversal came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved toward increased government bond purchases, helping pull yields lower and putting liquidity back at the center of the Bitcoin trade. Institutional demand did not disappear during the downturn. It waited for the macro backdrop to change.

Strive CEO Matt Cole says the firm’s base case has Bitcoin compounding at roughly 50% annually over the next three years, with a broader expected range of 30% to 70%. That would put Bitcoin around $400,000 to $500,000 by 2030.

Cole’s thesis is less about Bitcoin-specific catalysts than the dollar. He expects rising U.S. debt and pressure on long-term interest rates to eventually force policymakers toward measures that weaken the currency, strengthening Bitcoin’s appeal as a monetary hedge.

Bitwise released its first Institutional Crypto Adoption Report after interviewing senior investment professionals at 15 major institutions, including pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds and family offices.

The most interesting finding came from the drawdown. Not one institution interviewed reduced its crypto allocation during the roughly 50% decline from late 2025 through mid-2026, and several bought more. Every institution in the study that owned crypto also owned Bitcoin, usually as its first, largest and longest-held position.

In 2013, Afghan entrepreneur Roya Mahboob faced a basic problem: many of the women working for her had no practical access to banks, and cash wages could be taken by male relatives. She began teaching them to use Bitcoin wallets and paying them directly.

For some, it was the first time they could receive earnings privately and decide for themselves what happened to the money. One colleague later fled Afghanistan with little more than access to her wallet’s 12-word recovery phrase and was able to recover her savings after reaching Germany.

Mahboob does not pretend Bitcoin solved everything. She describes volatility as a serious obstacle. Her case for it is more basic: when the banking system could not reach these women, Bitcoin gave them a way to keep what they earned.

Bitcoin is breaking higher despite rising rates, record real yields and tighter monetary conditions. Is the old Bitcoin liquidity cycle dead? We break down the new Bitcoin paradigm, sovereign adoption, the collapse of the four-year cycle thesis, Bitcoin vs gold, and why the next wave of capital could eventually push BTC toward $1 million.