From Yesterday's Simply Bitcoin Live | Episode 1600
The Numbers
Price cooled off this week's high near 87,000 as bond yields spiked, even as Binance outflows and ETF inflows kept climbing.
The News
Twenty five thousand Bitcoin walked off Binance in the past seven days, the exchange's biggest single day exodus in three years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $2.2 billion over the same stretch, another 25,000 coins worth of demand. Add the two together and roughly 50,000 Bitcoin left the market this week, about 100 days of freshly mined supply gone in seven days.
Hours after that number hit, a different exchange, Bitget, got hacked for $350 million in a hot wallet exploit suspected to be tied to North Korean hackers. Same week, same industry, a very different kind of headline.
Zoom out and the bigger number is 81%, the share of Bitcoin supply that hasn't moved in six months. Exchange balances have fallen from 3.2 million coins in 2024 to 2.6 million now, and for the first time in years, individual holders turned net buyers in the third quarter instead of selling into the rally.
Nobody is left to sell.
The 10 year Treasury yield hit 5.2% this week, the highest level since June 2007. The 30 year hit 5.5%. Looking back 45 years, only two days saw a bigger single day selloff in Treasuries than this past Wednesday.
That move is already hitting regular people. The average 30 year mortgage rate climbed to 7.45%, up 150 basis points in six months and the highest since 2023.
Reuters and Bloomberg both reported this week that the US is exploring stablecoins as a way to keep global demand for its debt alive. Translation: the government needs new buyers, and stablecoins are on the list.
The safest asset in the world just lost its buyer of last resort.
The Culture
Guest TakeReturning guest Luke put real numbers on the bull case, giving a genuine 10% probability that Bitcoin hits $1 million within a year. His precedent: Bitcoin's 20x run from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017 and its 6x run from $10,000 to $65,000 in 2020, both without a fraction of today's institutional demand behind them.
Meanwhile, on the prediction market Kashi, only 10 to 15% of traders are betting Bitcoin closes the year above $100,000. Luke called those odds bearish, pointing out Bitcoin is already up roughly 50% over the past month alone.
Somebody is going to be very wrong by January.
Opti and returning guest Luke connect the Binance exodus, the ETF buying spree, and a bond market meltdown into one supply shock thesis, then argue about how high it goes.
Watch on YouTube →