From Yesterday's Simply Bitcoin Live | Episode 1596
The Numbers
Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50 week moving average for the first time since November, and that level rarely gets revisited.
The News
More than $575 million in leverage short positions got liquidated this morning as Bitcoin ripped through $86,000. Traders betting on another leg down got flushed out in hours. The move lines up with the exact level Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn had flagged: Bitcoin's weekly close cleared the 50 week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, a signal that has marked the bottom in four of the last five bear markets.
Even the loudest bear voices folded this weekend. Benjamin Cowen, who spent months arguing Bitcoin could still test $53,000 before any real bottom, posted that he was wrong and told his own audience that other analysts "deserve your viewership more" right now. Bitcoin has climbed 29% in just 35 days.
Bears don't go quiet when they're right.
Strategy bought 950 BTC last week using cash on hand instead of selling more MSTR shares, bringing its total holdings to 846,000 BTC. The company confirmed it sold zero shares under its at the market program between September 14 and 20, meaning the purchase came straight from the billions in cash it has been sitting on. Strategy has now also bought back every Bitcoin it sold earlier in this bear market.
Strive is buying too. The company picked up 1,355 BTC for $107.7 million at an average price of $79,475, pushing its total holdings to 26,355 BTC. Strive CEO Matt Cole has been telling anyone who will listen that his base case has Bitcoin compounding near 50% a year through 2030.
The treasury companies stopped selling. That is the tell.
The Wall Street Journal ran a piece over the weekend pinning the Clarity Act's collapse on Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, framing the crypto lobby as the side that overplayed its hand. Senator Cynthia Lummis pushed back hard, posting that senators own their votes and that Democrats killed the bill on the floor. Every single Democrat voted no.
Punch Bowl News told a messier version. Reporter Brendan Pedersen said aides from both parties blamed four things: outside politics, a broken process, wasted time, and a crypto industry that could not "chill the f out." Every concession in the bill's final months went to the banking sector, not to the developer protections Bitcoiners actually wanted.
Clarity Act failed and Bitcoin ripped anyway. Maybe that was the only clarity anyone needed.
The Culture
Market CommentaryVanEck's Matthew Sigel went on CNBC and said something the hosts have been arguing for months: advisers and sovereign wealth funds are already buying Bitcoin, not just talking about it. Sigel pointed to 25 different countries now mining or holding Bitcoin at the sovereign level, a count that keeps climbing every year.
Bitcoin has spent almost two decades getting dismissed for not sitting at a million dollars yet. The actual signal is how fast the sovereign and institutional conversation has moved since Trump's 2024 Bitcoin conference speech, not the price on any given Monday.
Bitcoin does not need permission anymore. It has counterparties.
Opi walks through why the bears finally caved, why Strategy and Strive are both buying again, and why the Clarity Act blame game already missed the point.
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