Bitwise Just Called $1.3 Million Bitcoin Relatively Easy

From Yesterday's Simply Bitcoin Live | Episode 1590

The Numbers

The pullback under 80K is what both hosts are calling the healthiest cool-off of the cycle.

The News

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told viewers his long-term Bitcoin target is $1.3 million by 2035, and he doesn't consider that a stretch. He's also calling for a run back to $100,000 this year, betting that Wall Street returns from its August break, looks at a bottoming market, and starts allocating again.

The hosts backed it with their own read on-chain. Willy Woo's liquidity-cycle data shows this correction never dipped the way real bear bottoms do, which he's calling over 90 percent odds of a real bottom, not a fakeout. Kent Halliburton says the four-year cycle isn't dead, just stretched, since this cycle already broke pattern by hitting a new high before the halving.

Wall Street's CIOs and Simply Bitcoin's on-chain charts are finally reading the same setup.

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Sazmining CEO Kent Halliburton says hash rate is down 20 percent from October's peak, and for the first time in Bitcoin's 16-year history, that decline isn't tied to a price crash. It's AI. Compute demand for AI data centers is pulling power and capital away from mining rigs, and once that infrastructure flips to AI, he says, it doesn't convert back.

His pitch: cheap ASIC inventory, hash rate growing at a fraction of its old pace, and Bitcoin price rising faster than new supply comes online could widen the gap between mining cost and market price for up to 18 months. He calls miners' full pivot to AI "a colossal mistake," driven by investors chasing dollar returns instead of Bitcoin itself.

The machines leaving for AI aren't coming back, and Halliburton thinks that's the best entry mining has ever had.

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At the RNC's Dallas convention, Trump promised every American adult a $5,000 check if Republicans keep Congress, a pledge that could cost $1 trillion or more with no funding source attached. The hosts didn't blink. Opti called it exactly what Bitcoiners already expect from politicians on both sides: buy votes now, print the difference later.

Then they did the math Bitcoiners always do. The $1,200 stimulus check from 2020 is worth roughly $13,000 to $14,000 today if it went into Bitcoin instead of spending. If the $5,000 checks land, the hosts' plan is the same one that worked last time: full port it into Bitcoin and let the next several years do the rest.

Every stimulus check is a referendum on the dollar, and Bitcoin keeps winning it.

The Culture

Reflection

On the show's 9/11 anniversary broadcast, Opti and Kent Halliburton traded memories of watching the towers fall as kids, then pointed to what actually reshaped the country afterward: the Patriot Act and a surveillance apparatus that normalized tracking money and movement by default.

Halliburton's read is that America lost its way after 2001 and is only now, in the middle of a messy decade, starting to find itself again. Bitcoin, in his framing, is part of that recovery: a system nobody can quietly expand or track without consent, built in direct response to the kind of financial surveillance 9/11 helped normalize.

A quarter century of surveillance built the case for Bitcoin better than any whitepaper could.