MSCI finalized new eligibility rules on October 15 for what it calls non-operating companies. A firm that fails a screen for operating assets faces five financial-ratio tests, and four flags means it is out. Strategy and Metaplanet are on MSCI’s list of companies that could be affected.

MSCI publishes the final list November 11, and changes take effect after the close on November 30. Removal doesn’t delist MSTR or force a single bitcoin sale. It does force index funds to sell the stock, and JPMorgan earlier put that passive selling at around $2.8 billion.

Strategy calls the screen a pretext built to exclude Bitcoin treasury companies. CEO Phong Le says the hit would be immaterial. MSTR slipped about 3% premarket Friday. Apparently 848,250 BTC on the balance sheet doesn’t count as operating.

Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, left this week when his detail from the Defense Department expired. No replacement has been named. He was the last known official on the council. Bo Hines left in August 2025, David Sacks in March, and Harry Jung in July.

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve turned 19 months old this month. The executive order told Treasury and Commerce to explore budget-neutral ways to buy more bitcoin. No public purchase program has followed, and the office that was supposed to push it now has nobody in it.

China’s Central Committee and State Council released guidelines October 9 that call for a national blockchain network alongside a nationwide computing power network. The document doesn’t mention Bitcoin, tokens, or open networks. The 2021 crypto ban still stands.

A state-run ledger with no coin attached is just a database the Party controls. The more interesting signal is Hong Kong. A former UBS head of Asia investment banking told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia that Beijing is using the city to test how crypto can work, and that opening cross-border trading would set off another cycle.

Glassnode puts the average cost basis of US spot ETF buyers at roughly $81,500. Bitcoin has now bounced off that level twice. Monday’s low was $80,948 before price recovered above $83,000. If the floor breaks, Glassnode’s next major support is the true market mean near $77,500.

Saylor told Bloomberg this week that bitcoin should move back into six figures. He put the bottom slightly below $60,000 and expects 20% to 30% a year over the long run. Wall Street’s buyers are roughly breakeven, and the man with the biggest bag is calling for six figures.

Wells Fargo is reportedly in talks with Payward, Kraken’s parent, to supply crypto trading liquidity to the bank, according to CoinDesk. BNY Mellon has separately discussed a custody, trading and wealth partnership with Payward. Neither deal is confirmed, and no terms are public.

If it lands, the model is crypto-native firms running the plumbing under legacy bank brands. The ETFs were the first version of that. Bank apps could be the next.

September CPI came in hot on October 14. Prices rose 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the year, a tick above the 3.6% forecast. Gasoline drove more than half the monthly jump, up 9.1% in September alone.

Traders on Kalshi repriced within hours. Odds of a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s October 27 to 28 meeting roughly doubled, to between a third and 40%. CME’s FedWatch showed the same jump.

A hike is the headwind every risk asset fears, and Bitcoin spent the same week sitting on its ETF cost basis without breaking it. If the Fed tightens on October 28, that $81,500 line gets its real test.

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Bitcoin is approaching a critical $88,000 level that has historically signaled a new all-time high within 75 days, with a perfect 7-for-7 track record. Could Bitcoin reach a new ATH by Christmas? With inflation fears, institutional capital flows, Michael Saylor's Strategy, and the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle all in play, we break down the powerful historical signal that could change everything.