S2F Is Officially Canceled

I did not think I had to say this, but the Bitcoin Stock to Flow model is officially cancelled. It was a cute little hopium fantasy while it lasted, but many of us told you it was suspect from the get go. Sadly the biggest influencers and podcasters in Bitcoin were smitten with this model and couldn’t shut up about it. I know anytime I would poke holes in their logic I was met with hate or blocked. Well guess what motherfuckers? We were RIGHT again and you were WRONG!

Exponential Growth Hopium

When this model first started gaining traction, I honestly tried to like it. I mean who wouldn’t like a model that shows exponential growth over time. After listening to the guy who made it up doing his horse and pony show talking about it on any podcast that would have him, it just felt like hopium bullshit. The worst part were all the big follower accounts who perpetuted this garbage.

A Trip Down S2F Memory Lane

Unethical Silence

I do not blame the naive people who were captivated by this hopium fantasy, but it just goes to show you how powerful the circle jerk marketing of influencers and podcasters is in this space. We have seen this play out time after time. As soon as shit goes south, these people are onto the next thing. Instead of simply saying, “Hey everyone we got it wrong with S2F,” these clowns went silent or they backpeddled rationalizing their takes. Most are still silent, and this is a huge tell on why you should never listen to these donkeys. They are just winging it like everyone else.

Monetizing Hopium

The most embarrassing part about S2F is the guy who spun up this garbage model is still trying to push it. He amassed an extremely large following when S2F was holding up. As it started to break down, he then evolved it to S2Fx. He is now monetizing this following by shilling exchange referral links and continuing to gaslight people. The S2F model could still be in play claiming it was a “black swan” event that messed it up. This is what manipulative people do. They move the goal posts in order not to kill their golden goose.

You Can’t Fix Stupid

I remember the day when the model definitively blew up. There was no way anyone with a rational or logical bone in their body could defend it. Guess what? There were still idiots defending this guy and the model. As more months went by, it was crystal clear S2F was DEAD. We finally hit a point where the majority of people were clowning the inventor and calling him out for being wrong. Despite this, there are still people today who really believe this model still works. You can’t fix stupid, and there is no sense in arguing with fools.

The Oracles

I remember being so annoyed with the Bitcoiners drunk on S2F during its heyday that I made up my own model and named it Sack to Flow. I told people when my “Oracles” tingled, the Bitcoin price would go up. I was right 95% of the time to the point where people would regularly ask me if my balls were tingling. To this day, I will stand by the fact that my oracles are more accurate than S2F.

A Few People Got It Right

There were many of us plebs who saw problems with this model from the get go. Hopium dreams are powerful. The backlash we received for speaking out about this was crazy. We were blocked, criticized, and shamed publicly for having a different opinion. The big follower accounts who were willing to publicly go against the grain of S2F-group-think deserve credit. Many of us appreciate the well thought out rebuttles some of you wrote poking holes in S2F.

Spin, Regret and Rationalization

Not all the people who jumped on the S2F train are bad. Some got caught up in the hype while others monopolized on the opportunity to garner more followers peddling the latest “popular” thing. The hardest part for me was watching the ones who half heartedly admitted S2F was broken, but they insisted on cherry picking the bits and pieces they liked to sugar coat the fact they were wrong. Sorry to break it to you, but you can’t have it both ways. The model either works or it doesn’t.

The most slippery individuals were the ones who dangled a foot on each side of the fence. They did not want to commit to backing S2F, but they also did not want to be the ones who shit on it if the model worked out. They warmed up to it when the going was good but quickly distanced themselves the moment the model imploded. To error is human. I just wish more people were humble enough to not feel the need to spin or rationalize how things played out in order to save face.

Take Away

S2F is a huge lesson every Bitcoiner can learn from. All models will be broken, and DO NOT listen to anyone who sells hopium cocktails. I watched a lot of good people get gaslit into thinking this model actually worked. Anyone with basic math or statistical skills could see through this guy’s bullshit excuses everytime the model would break. The influencers and podcasters who gave him a platform are just as guilty for aggresively pushing this garbage with hours and hours of podcasts and endless colorful TA chart.

The takeaway from this is simple. EVERY Bitcoiner needs to realize you are ALONE in this game. You do not need big follower accounts to give you hopium to HODL Bitcoin. They won’t be there when shit goes south. This also exemplifies the power of the influencer circle jerk. Their credibility took a huge black eye on this one. I just wish some of them would admit they were wrong.

P.S. If you are someone who still believes in the S2F model, please get help. Save your stupid opinions and comments for somone who cares! S2F is officially cancelled! If you were one of the folks who got caught up in the hopium, it can happen to the best of us. Learn from it and never forget the people who pushed you down that path. A special thanks to all the plebs who helped gather up the receipts for this article.

Written by @piratebeachbum2

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