From Yesterday's Simply Bitcoin Live | Episode 1590
The Numbers
Price cooled off after brushing 80K this morning, and the hosts called the pullback healthy, not a warning sign.
The News
Bitcoin touched $80,000 this morning before settling near $77,730, still 38.4% off its all time high. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan used the moment to restate his long term call: $1.3 million per coin by 2035, which he called relatively easy to hit. His logic leans on Wall Street coming back from its August break to a market that's already found its floor.
Willy Woo's liquidity model backs him up. Woo says this dip never crossed the line that has marked every real bottom since 2012, putting the odds of a genuine bottom above 90 percent. Jesse Myers reads the same setup and calls it the start of a two to three year bull market that runs into 2029 or 2030.
The four year cycle crowd might be wrong this time, but the money piling in doesn't care either way.
Sazmining CEO Kent Halliburton says Bitcoin mining is living through its first hash rate bear market in 16 years of data. AI data centers are outbidding miners for powered land, hash rate has sat flat for months, and ASIC manufacturers have reportedly cut production lines because demand dried up.
Halliburton calls this the golden pocket. Hardware is as cheap as it will get, and once that inventory clears, plugging in gets harder and more expensive. He expects hash rate to grow around half a percent a month against a price he thinks climbs closer to 3 percent a month, which means miners who lock in production costs now bank that spread as Bitcoin rips.
Everyone is watching the price. The real trade might be the machines nobody wants to build anymore.
At the RNC's midterm convention in Dallas, Trump pitched a $5,000 dividend for every adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress in November. With roughly 240 million eligible adults, that price tag lands near $1.2 trillion, well above what tariffs have actually collected this year.
The hosts didn't buy the political math, but they lit up over the ratio. Every 2020 stimulus check that got routed straight into Bitcoin is still sitting on roughly a 10x even after the pullback. Print more, and the bet on the show is that trade just repeats.
Whatever happens in November, the printer doesn't stop, and Bitcoin's job doesn't change.
Opti and Sazmining's Kent Halliburton break down the golden pocket mining trade and why this cool off might be the healthiest dip of the cycle.
Watch on YouTube →