From Yesterday's Simply Bitcoin Live | Episode 1597
The Numbers
ETF demand just hit its highest level since October, the same month the last bear market began.
The News
Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas confirmed Bitcoin ETFs pulled in more than a billion dollars, the biggest one day flow since October. IBIT led with $381 million, ARKB and FBTC each cleared $200 million, and all six major funds contributed.
CryptoQuant put the number at $999 million and nearly 12,000 BTC pulled off exchanges in a single day. That's more than 25 days of newly mined supply gone at once. Glassnode's data shows the MVRV ratio just crossed back above its 360 day average, the same signal that preceded the 2019 and 2023 bull runs.
The last time flows moved this fast, October had just wrecked the market. This time they're moving the other way.
CNBC's Oliver Renick reported live from the Cboe floor that IBIT options volume is running four times its 30 day average, MSTR two and a half times, with call buying outpacing puts by more than two to one. The single most popular IBIT contract right now is the 70 strike December 18 call, a bet on Bitcoin retesting its old all-time high near $130,000.
Kalshi's prediction markets lean the same way, with more money sitting on six figures by year end than on a drop back below $87,000. James Lavish, a board member at Strive and co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, now says Bitcoin could retest its all-time high within 60 to 120 days if nothing in the macro backdrop breaks.
Retail is still arguing about a dead cat bounce. Wall Street already bought the calls.
The ECB flipped on Pontes this week, a platform that lets banks settle tokenized asset trades in central bank money, with a consumer facing digital euro pilot still slated for 2027. ECB President Christine Lagarde called it a digital euro made available for banks.
The hosts weren't buying it. They called it a solution looking for a problem, since anyone in Europe can already move money through a bank without friction. The timing also lines up with the SEC's own tokenization push right after the Clarity Act failed last week, which the hosts read as regulators racing to look relevant next to Bitcoin, not solving anything real.
Bitcoin didn't ask permission to matter. That's the part central banks can't copy.
The Culture
Market CommentaryOpti called the bottom early last week and got trolled for it. Today he and Nico walked back their own calls on air, splitting the credit and the blame down the middle. Nico, the show's designated bear, put himself at 90 percent sure the bottom is in but said he won't say it's confirmed until price clears the old highs.
The bigger admission came from both of them on timing. Both hosts now say they were too conservative on how fast Bitcoin could get back to six figures, walking back their own December and January calls after watching yesterday's price action.
Being early and wrong about the exact date beats being right about staying out.
Opti and Nico break down the onchain data behind the bottom call, the BlackRock versus Strategy race to a million coins, and why the ECB's new platform has them rolling their eyes.
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